new bearish pc play to try out

Seems like we just might be rolling over  for a little while, daily chart-wise in ES.  I've looked back a couple weeks, with the assumption, that if the dynamic of the market has changed recently from bullish to short term bearish, there would be some kind of pattern emerging with the way down days play out.

PC has been working better lately than it had been.  I have been really trying to get involved in that again.  So I have been looking at these down days for an afternoon PC trade.  I have noticed that out of 4 similar down days that i looked at, 3 of them had nice drops close to the close, or after 3 at least.  The fourth one did drift up the last hour and a half but didnt rip or anything.  So i came up with this trade:  If by 1 oclock, we havent had a real bounce on a down morning, wait for the first squeeze to the MA, (if we are above at 1, wait for a cross below for confirmation, then sell the next squeeze to it)  then put on a short trade for a couple hours- pc style.  Stop-loss has to be fairly far, like 4.5 points.  The exit, if it works, is into the first decent size drop after 3.  If you don't get one, out before imbalances come out.  Out of the 4 samples, i would have made nice bank on 3 of them, and lost about 2 points on one (if didnt take a small profit of 1 or 1.50 on the drop shortly after 3 and instead got out exasperated around moc time).  Two of the 3 that worked were today (actually yesterday, its after midnight) and friday, so recent action confirms.


Since this bearish action in the markets has only started recently there were not many examples to look at, meaning that there isn't quite so much confidence to be gained from any patterns found, but PC is something well tested.  Also, I have thought that the market tends to do what its been doing recently much more often than would be implied by mere coincidence, and also much more often than it tends to repeat behavior over long periods like months or years.  Because of this i think there is a strong chance that in the near future this behavior is likely to repeat, and so i am compelled to try to do this play.  I will try it out the next couple times I see it, and hopefully not mess it up too bad.  I will reassess then if i need to.  Lets say, next setup like this i see, i will do it with 3k shares of spy.  That loss if, it goes wrong of 1350 gross doesnt seem too bad...  If it really starts working repeatedly and my account balance recovers i can always size it up later.

here's how it would have worked out today

-fmlt